Latest Research
PULSE - December 22, 2025
Central Bank Talk and Consumer Resilience Define Year-End Narrative
The Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2025 laid bare the tensions at the heart of American monetary policy, delivering a rate cut that satisfied few and exposed deep divisions among policymakers. As the year draws to a close, the interplay among inflation concerns, consumer behavior, and fiscal considerations (which is to say, is anyone in policy even considering fiscal matters?) presents a complex picture for investors and policymakers alike.
Fed Delivers Third Cut Amid Calls for MORE Dovish Policy
Perscient's semantic signature trackin
g language arguing in favor of easier monetary policy rose to a z-score of 1.72, up 0.33 points from the prior week. This intensification in dovish rhetoric coincided with the Federal Reserve's December 10 decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
The decision marked the third consecutive rate reduction of 2025, yet it was anything but routine. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the difficulty of the call, stating that he "could make a case for either side" and describing it as "a close call." The vote itself revealed unusual fractures within the committee: three officials dissented, pulling in opposite directions. Stephen Miran, the Fed governor appointed by President Trump, preferred a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid argued for holding rates steady.