Latest Research
PULSE - October 20, 2026
OIL-LED INFLATION HARDENS THE POLICY NARRATIVE, TREASURYS QUIETLY RECLAIM THE HAVEN TRADE, AND K-SHAPED FRAMING WIDENS THREE WEEKS BEFORE THE MIDTERMS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Financial media has settled on a single interpretation of the Iran conflict: it is a price shock to be absorbed, not a risk event to be hedged. Prescriptive hawkishness cooled from a high base into the October FOMC, but dovish prescription remains nearly absent from coverage and expressions of uncertainty about the policy path fell further — commentary treats a hold this month and a December hike as settled facts. Equally telling, expressions of uncertainty about geopolitical policy decisions sit close to their long-run norm during an active war, and forward-looking inflation expectation signatures barely moved despite a 3.7% CPI print a
