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The Bear Stearns Moment (Model Portfolio for April)

The Bear Stearns Moment (Model Portfolio for April)

By Epsilon Theory

|

April 1, 2026

This latest TACO policy in the Iran War is a Bear Stearns Moment, where market narratives will proclaim that ‘systemic risk is off the table’ and will look through all of the inflation shocks and all of the growth shocks as ‘transitory’. I'm not fighting this.

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By Epsilon Theory

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PULSE - April 07, 2026

Iran War Energy Shock Drives Inflation Narrative to Multi-Year Intensity as Fiscal Cross-Currents and Safe Haven Reconfiguration Reshape Investor Calculus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- The Iran war energy shock has produced the most intense inflation expectation surge in recent memory, while consumer spending expectations have simultaneously collapsed, creating a stagflationary media environment in which the Fed appears paralyzed. With oil near $110 a barrel and ISM input prices at their highest since late 2022, the inflation narrative has overwhelmed all other weekly signature moves. Yet prescriptive calls for either dovish or hawkish Fed action remain muted, and growth optimism is virtually absent from financial media, suggesting that commentators view the central bank as trapped between an accelerating price spiral and a weakening consumer.

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