Latest Research
PULSE - October 06, 2026
DAY 220 OF THE IRAN WAR: A HAWKISH POLICY CONSENSUS, A POLITICAL SCRAMBLE TO CUT CHECKS, AND A 5% TREASURY MARKET THE NARRATIVE HAS STOPPED FEARING
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The war has been written into the baseline rather than treated as a shock. At day 220, with Hormuz still closed and crude roughly a third above its prewar level, our signatures tracking geopolitical-policy uncertainty, risk-on posture, and risk-off posture are all flat and subdued, and the entire flight-to-safety complex spanning Treasurys, the franc, gold, and the yen remains deeply negative. Commentary now treats the conflict as a standing input to the oil-led inflation story instead of an active risk premium to be hedged.
