Latest Research
PULSE - September 15, 2026
OIL AT $105 AND A 5% TEN-YEAR RESET THE NARRATIVE: HAWKISH POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS, A FISCAL CREDIBILITY PROBLEM, AND TARIFF POLITICS RUNNING IN REVERSE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The regime-change story arrives without any accompanying fear language. Every flight-to-safety signature — Treasurys, Swiss franc, yen, gold, money market funds — sits deep in negative territory, geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty signatures were flat, and risk-on and risk-off readings have converged to nearly the same level just below zero. Media are narrating a supply shock, a five-percent ten-year, and a first hike since 2023 while conspicuously declining to counsel defensive positioning.
