Latest Research
PULSE - March 17, 2026
Iran Conflict, Inflation Resurgence, and a Pause in De-Dollarization Narratives Shape a Week of Shifting Market Crosscurrents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Iran conflict's most consequential market impact may not be the immediate risk-off repositioning but rather the inflation pipeline it has opened. The war has driven the largest weekly surge in language arguing that investors expect inflation to accelerate, while language arguing that inflation will fade has simultaneously weakened. With oil sustaining near $100 per barrel, multiple analysts project that headline CPI could reach 3.5–4% by year-end. At the same time, growth expectations are softening and unemployment concerns are rising, producing a stagflation narrative that is tightening the vise on monetary policy: hawkish prescriptions are gaining media intensity while dovish prescriptions are fading, suggesting that the Fed may find itself unable to cut rates to support a weakening economy without further fueling price pressures.
