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PULSE - January 20, 2026

Rising Geopolitical Uncertainty Defines Early 2026

Tariff Narratives Evolve as Pass-Through Concerns Intensify

Perscient's semantic signature tracking predictions of tariff increases climbed sharply by 1.1 to a z-score of 1.3 this week. At the same time, our signature tracking language arguing that tariffs will help the economy declined by 1.1, though it remains elevated at 2.6. This divergence hints at growing skepticism among commentators about the domestic benefits of tariff policy even as they expect more tariffs to come after the Trump administration’s Greenland threats.

The shift appears to be rooted in mounting evidence about who actually pays for tariffs. A widely publicized study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that U.S. tariffs under the current administration are paid almost entirely by American importers, businesses, and consumers, with a 96% pass-through rate to U.S. buyers. Foreign exporters absorbed just 4% of the burden. JPMorgan has noted that while businesses footed roughly 80% of the tariff bill last year, that dynamic is changing. Companies are increasingly passing costs along to customers, and that 80% could shrink to 20% later this year.

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